Early Warning System

Despite considerable interest, success in implementing an early warning system has been limited primarily because of the shortcomings of weather-based and climate projection-based warning systems. Weather-based warnings (7 to 10-day lead time) do not provide enough time for public health interventions to be mobilized, while climate projection-based warnings (50 to 100-year time horizon) are too distant in the future to guide meaningful preparedness discussions at present. Through collective engagement over the past decade, our team has learned that public health practitioners are seeking early warning systems with seasonal to sub-seasonal (S2S) lead times, as this range provides adequate time to prepare and respond to projected climate change-related threats.